IMPROVING PUBLIC COUNTING STATS BY COMBINING THEM
The general idea here is not to throw counting stats out, but to combine them all into one stat, assigning each one an appropriate weight.
My goal was to take public counting stats, and combine them to predict future on ice goals for.
The metrics I set out to use were.
Goals- individual goals scored
A1- primary assists
A2- secondary assists
Esa- estimated shot assists, from @loserpoints
Iff- individual fenwick for (the unblocked shot’s a player takes)
Ixfsh%- the percentage of times a league average shooter would score given that players iff
Ixgf- the amount of goals a league average finisher would score given that players (unblocked) shots
Gives- number of times a player gives the puck away. Yes giveaways are going to be a good thing in this model
Takes- amount of times a player takes the puck away from the other team
(all per hour of 5v5 ice time)
Each of these metrics predicts future goals to varying degrees.
A few things. First, secondary assists aren’t necessarily useless, they just aren’t nearly as useful as other stats. Second, as Spriging’s already showed, looking at primary points probably isn’t optimal, because primary assists are worth more than goals. Finally, individual shot quality doesn’t add much, if anything to the equation.
Primary assists are the most important. Then takeaways, goals, and shots are just behind. After that shot assists and giveaways provide less value, and finally secondary assists add the least.
This new metric isn’t a WAR model in itself, but I think based on the testing we can conclude it is a very useful stat.
(July 2018)
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