EV SH%
To what extent is team-to-team variation in even strength shooting percentage the product of random variation? I’m not sure what the answer is, but I suspect that the contribution is substantial.
teams do indeed differ in their underlying shooting percentage at EV.
this variation is only very slightly larger than what would be predicted by chance alone.
the vast majority of inter-individual variation seems to be due to random variation.
IS THERE STREAKINESS IN EVSH%
Real players are much more likely to hit the extremes – in particular, 1, 2, 23 and 24 goals scored in a 100-shot stretch are much more likely in reality than they are in our automaton simulation. There are lots of potential effects here, including scorer bias (we often see own goals credited to some random forward; perhaps there are other issues), but the deviation in distributions likely does reflect small variations in effective shooting talent. Some of that is streakiness, but some of it can also be attributed to injury
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