PREDICTING PP SUCCESS
PREDICTING YEAR TO YEAR PP SUCCESS
it appears to be becoming harder to predict power plays success
I think it’s fair to say existing single metrics just won’t get it done in terms of analyzing power plays year-to-year.
PREDICTING SECOND HALF SUCCESS
(Feb 2015)
Fenwick For per 60 minutes is the best predictor of future power play goal rates.
FF/60 was a better predictor of future success according to past studies than CF/60, scoring chances might perform even better.
It is pretty clear that, due to the large sample, a team’s shot attempt rate is the most repeatable among power play statistics
SCF/60, last season, even accounted for 10 percent of the variance in the latter half’s goal rates.
Be weary of putting too much weight into power play shot rates, because for s ome reason they have recently not appeared as predictive as previously advertised.
PREDICTING WHICH PLAYERS WILL HE SUCCESSFUL ON PP
Opportunity often matters just as much as ability when it comes to a player’s results.
The two even-strength variables that provide the best predictions of a player’s PPCD60 (pp Corsi differential per 60) are a player’s Individual Corsi For Per 60 (iCF60, how many shot attempts he personally takes per 60 minutes) and his Teammates’ Corsi For Per 60 (tmCF60, how many shot attempts his linemates take while he’s on the ice).
Using our models we can identify players on each team who may be deserving of more powerplay time, or, in contrast, those who may not have earned the man-advantage minutes that they’ve played so far.
Comentarii