5-on-4 SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
SHOTS VS SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
(Oct 2008)
1. A team’s PPG/60 is pretty tightly tied to its shooting percentage.
2. Past shooting percentage doesn’t predict future shooting percentage on the team level particularly well.
3. Shooting rate predicts future scoring rates about as well as actual scoring rates do.
I have a theory that there’s a limit to what skill on the PP can get you in terms of shooting percentage and above that, you’re into luck.
LUCK VS SKILL (4 ARTICLES)
About two-thirds of the variance in team powerplay shooting percentage can be explained through randomness
3. Team powerplay shooting percentage actually appears to be more random in its distribution than EV shooting percentage, not less.
The correct values suggest that team skill differences in powerplay shooting percentage are roughly equal in size to team skill differences in even strength shooting percentage
Teams appear to be more varied with respect to 5-on-4 shooting talent as compared to even strength shooting talent
This result implies that both powerplay shooting percentage and even strength shooting percentage are actually measuring the same underlying skill.
We can reasonably assume that team differences in even strength shooting talent are concentrated at the top half of the roster.
The variation in powerplay shooting percentage at the team level, over the course of a single regular season, is approximately 90% luck, 10% skill.
Not surprisingly, powerplay shot rate is a stronger predictor of future powerplay performance than raw powerplay performance
Shot production is a better predictor of future powerplay success relative to raw performance (with respect to 40 game sample sizes). And while missed shots have some informational value, blocked shots do not.
better penalty kills force their opponents to take a greater proportion of missed and blocked shots.
SHOTS VS SHOT QUALITY
the relationship between shots per sixty minutes of 5v4 time on ice and power play success (power play conversion percentage) is extremely strong, with an r^2 = .400 So, given our sample size, 5v4 shots per 60 predicts 40% of power play success.
A team’s power play shooting percentage in half of its games has almost no predictive ability for guessing how it will do in the other half, so we should attribute a high shooting percentage to luck rather than a scheme that produces high quality shots.
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