WHAT DRIVES PP SUCCESS
WHAT DRIVES PP SUCCESS
A team's power play shooting percentage in half of its games has almost no predictive ability for guessing how it will do in the other ha
So should attribute a high shooting percentage to luck rather than a scheme that produces high quality shots.
Shooting rate – shots for per 60 mins at 5-on-4 – is by far the most persistent talent.
Shooting percentage has very little predictive value as we might have expected, but the rate at which teams shoot on the PP is a better indicator of their future power-play “efficiency” than their past power-play efficiency.
ZONE ENTRIES AS DRIVERS OF PP SUCCESS
· More entries
o Not A Major Factor
· More controlled entries -
o Does Not Lead To More Scoring
· More shots per controlled entry
o Has Not Led To Increased Goals Scoring (Yet).
· More shots per uncontrolled entry
o Significantly increases scoring
· Each shot is more dangerous
o This is definitely true; league-wide save percentages on the penalty kill are much lower than at even strength
the major factor is that they can pass it around until they get a shot from a dangerous location.
It is this last one that makes the biggest difference.
the major factor is that they can pass it around until they get a shot from a dangerous location. However, we have seen previously that the difference between a good power play and a bad one is not how dangerous that shot is, but how quickly they can create that dangerous shot.
Power plays are dangerous because teams are able to get off shots from much more dangerous locations than they do at even strength.
However, it’s been shown elsewhere that teams have little control over their shooting percentage, so the best power plays are still the ones that generate a lot of those shots.
QUANTIFYING PP PERFORMANCE IN FORMATION
getting into formation efficiently — most frequently a 1-3-1 — is a catalyst for power play success.
What metric conceptually would be a good representation of whether a team is having success in formation?
It would seem to be scoring chances. If a team is getting scoring chances when set up in formation, that’s a pretty good sign that they are doing a good job with that particular aspect of the man advantage.
High Quality Chances: home plate area, a Royal Road one-timer, a screened shot, a tipped shot, or a rebound.
Home Plate Area:
almost 70 percent of the goals you see at 5-on-4 are from the home plate area.
Royal Road One Timers:
These shots are, however, dangerous because of forcing the goalie to move laterally a great distance at high speeds — one of the most difficult things for a goalie to do.
Screening the goalie:
Screens are hugely important on the power play. They turn a wasted shot into a scoring chance without too much difficulty, which is a huge advantage.
Tipped Shots:
It is the defenseman’s job to either front the shot — block it before it reaches the screening player — or tie up that offensive player’s stick so that the goalie gets a clean save opportunity.
Rebound Shots:
High Quality Chances For go in 7.22 percent of the time, compared to 0.76 percent of the time for non-High Quality (or “Low Quality Chances”).
Low Quality Chances, as I’ve defined them, are wasted shots. Coaches should tell their players not to take those shots. They should have rules and guidelines of when players should be able to shoot
SHOT SELECTION ON THE PP
Most of the time, a power play unit that isn’t getting enough shots off is struggling not because they refuse to shoot, but because they can’t generate good enough quality shots.
This tends to be because of guys being placed on their strong sides, so they have poor angles,
Shot quality is more important on the power play because a good unit will be able to isolate the extra man and thus create above average chances.
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