WHERE DO BOTTOM SIX FORWARDS COME FROM
(June 2012)
the biggest source of bottom six forwards is…the top thirty picks in the draft.
If you’re some guy who had a nice little second/third line run in your draft year and had people talking about you as a future NHL bottom six player at the draft – well, there’s the competition. The guy you couldn’t play in front of in junior.
The supply of bottom six forwards is surprisingly consistent though – teams still turn them up with some frequency late in the draft.
there were more bottom six forwards who were undrafted last year than there were bottom six forwards picked between 31 and 60.
This undermines the idea of drafting to produce your own bottom sixers.
By far the biggest group of players playing bottom six forward roles in the NHL between ages of 26 and 40 are players who were undrafted or drafted at spots that no longer exist in the NHL draft.
I would add that I don’t think it makes sense to try and draft 3rd/4th liners.
better off doing is drafting players who I think COULD be 1st liners, because replacing 1st liners is very, very hard. Even if many of these players are likely to bust, I am still way better off than drafting a guy who I want to put on my 3rd line, a player who is easy to replace.
BUILDING A TEAM IN THE MODERN NHL
Good teams have one or two elite lines and then after that you want to maximize depth and talent but you’d never think of evenly distributing minutes as part of wanting depth.
A modern bottom-of-the-lineup depth chart should look like is not just purely based upon analytics, or the old way of thinking; it’s a blend of what I think is necessary to win.
1. Playdriving
”Play drivers” are players who generate a significantly greater amount of shot attempts than they allow. By the numbers, that means they have a positive differential in RAPM stats (regularized adjusted plus minus) like CF/60.
They don’t need to bring a ton of physicality; they just need to keep the puck on the other end of the ice until the guys whose job it is to score consistently can get back out there.
If you have the puck, the other team can’t score; so a possession-based structure is actually the primary way for you to help out your goalie, while also getting the most out of a group that typically lacks skill in the current format.
Create an entire line of players like these, and you get a group that crushes the opposition in shot totals, goals, and chances,
2. Chance Generation
Players create scoring by producing chances on the net.
A characteristic that has been discovered about chance generation is that there’s an area between the two face-off circles and the high slot that accounts for the majority of NHL goals scored, aka the home plate.
By winning the shot quality and quantity battle, a bottom of the lineup group can have massive scoring impact on a game, and will likely win the scoring battle at 5v5 over the course of the season.
That’s what you look for from a player, and if they’re effective at pushing opposing play to the perimeter, they’re probably a good defender as well.
Emphasis he puts on pushing the puck down low and getting to the dirty areas consistently. Producing rebounds, rush attempts and slot plays so frequently
3. Youth
Must have youth providing skill and upside to the bottom of the lineup.
Have a bunch of kids play in reduced roles, where their skill and upside can potentially flourish to win much-needed matchups in playoff situations.
A lot of teams tend to want “safe” guys (i.e. known quantities) in their bottom-six that they think can be trusted to “not lose” the game.
This is how contenders can play Austin Watson or Matt Irwin over Yakov Trenin or Frederic Allard. The experience argument doesn’t work if the player still sucks. Trust the youth and you win games.
4. Versatility
Versatility is hugely important in the construction of the bottom of the roster; you need guys who can ultimately play well in any situation.
If you have “middle six” players who can play center or wing, you ultimately have more freedom to make changes to the roster without potentially upsetting all the positives a line or player has going for them.
5. Physicality
Having a guy who drives play, creates and can skate is about all you want, but having one or two dudes who can create big hits and do all the rest of that stuff is helpful too.
The hard part of running an organization should be finding and developing top end talent for a roster, not building a group of largely shifting and replaceable players who can pretty easily be analyzed.
4th LINE ANALYTICS
Soak up defensive zone starts, limit chances against top lines, and allow offensive teammates to thrive in offensive deployment against softer competition.
Find players that can drive play, contribute positive goal differentials, and also hit and swing momentum when needed, or set the tone to start a big playoff game, that’s always preferable to a line that only checks those first two boxes.
There is more to building a hockey team than simply tossing out the players with the best even-strength shot or goal differentials. Factors like hitting ability; leadership; chemistry; and special teams and lead protecting capabilities, though overemphasized by TV analysts and some front offices, still must be taken into account. Build responsibly.
HOW MUCH IS THE BEST 4TH LINE IN HOCKEY WORTH
NHL General Managers are relatively overpaying for marginal improvements on fourth-line players, while underpaying for middle-six players.
The biggest gap is in third-line players. The potential marginal improvement towards a team’s goal differential is almost the same as second line forwards, yet the difference in compensation is nearly identical to fourth-line players.
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