VALUE OF A DRAFT PICK VS ACTIVE PLAYER
Player Value = (Career TOI/g) / (Position average TOI/g)
Any trade in which a team acquires a serviceable NHL player for a 4+ draft pick is automatically a steal. ie. The Daniel Winnik for a 4th rounder is highway robbery.
WHEN TO BE AGGRESSIVE/CAUTIOUS AT TDL
(Feb 28, 2016)
Looking at the chart, we can see there is a greater than 50 per cent probability that any successful picks made with those first-rounders will take five or more years to contribute regularly in the NHL.
Adding depth players for a few months of marginal performance in exchange for two chances to add future contributors seems like a poor exchange. If your window is about to close, it seems like a waste to give up on any chances to restock the cupboard. It may be better to roll the dice with what you have.
It’s easy to forget, but developing players from the draft takes a significant amount of time – often three-to-five years. Therefore, it makes perfect sense for teams with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations to exchange picks for key pieces to a Cup run. But if those pieces have limited value, the logic breaks down a fair bit.
DRAFT PICK WORTH TRADE FOR ACTIVE PLAYER
· Over their first ten seasons in the league, a top-10 overall pick should be considered to be worth ~170 total points if a defenseman is selected, or ~350 points if a forward is selected.
· Depending on how soon that player really begins to contribute, (e.g. many players only are NHL regulars for 5-8 of their first ten seasons), top-10 overall defensemen come out as ~20-30 point per season players, and top-10 forwards come out as ~40-60 point per season players
· Second round picks only really begin to meaningfully contribute around their fifth season after being drafted. As such, you should consider the ‘lifetime production’ for these picks to be over approximately five or six active NHL seasons.
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