Just because a prospect player went undrafted or drafted late does not make him a second class citizen. Draft position matters less and less the further you get from the draft day.
FIRST HALF OF DRAFT IS SKILL SECOND HALF IS LUCK
(Aug 2013)
So after determining each player’s average GVT/year, I calculated the average GVT/year of all players drafted at each individual spot in the draft.
It looks as one might expect, with a steep drop-off after the first couple selections, followed by a gentle downward slope as the draft roles along. This trend suggests that teams are in general, decent prospect evaluators.
From pick 100 and on, the draft looks completely random. This is more or less just white noise. There is no discernible trend and it appears that a pick at 110 has just as good a chance at finding talent as a pick at 210.
MEASURING YEAMS DRAFT SUCCESS (2 ARTICLES)
(June 2014)
It goes without saying that running the draft is one of, if not the most, important aspects of any general manager’s job.
No method of measuring a team’s drafting ability will be perfect, far from it. I think there are enough positive signs from these results though that we can have some confidence that these numbers aren’t totally out to lunch
One point of interest that some of you may have already picked up on is that dip after pick 29. That’s pretty significant, and almost makes it seem like the difference between the 1st round and 2nd round for forwards is literally night and day.
It’s almost common knowledge to hockey fans that follow the draft that forwards are easier to predict and project than defencemen.
You have a half-decent chance of picking an actual NHL goaltender if he’s talented enough to be taken in the first round of the draft- or bad enough that he’s picked with the 200th pick- THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND.
WHAT DRAFT ROUND CAN TELL US ABOUT LONG TERM PERFORMANCE
In terms of player development, this data suggests that:
• If a first round pick hasn’t played a game by their fourth potential NHL season, they likely will never appear in the NHL.
• 20-30% of successful second and third round players only begin to meaningfully play for their franchise between 5-7 years after being drafted (e.g. the pink shaded area on the ’80 games played’ chart)
• The gap between the top 10 overall and the rest of the first round is actually relatively small when looking at the likelihood to pass the 150 game threshold (especially in comparison to metrics later in the article).
• And, as we know, all other rounds after the first three appear to have close to equal likelihoods of producing long term NHL players.
1) If a player is drafted in round X, and is ultimately able to make the NHL, by when should they be expected to be a contributing NHL player
• First round players typically make their initial NHL appearance within 1-2 years, and will almost always have played their first full season (~80 games) by their fourth year after being drafted.
• Second and third round players take much longer to develop, and many only play a full season by their 5th-7th years after being drafted.
• Players who haven’t played by these general timelines become highly unlikely to ever make serious NHL contributions (>1 season played).
2) How well does the typical player perform over the course of his career (on various metrics) after being selected in a given round
• Most players drafted outside the first round never make the league at all (second round players have a 60% likelihood of playing one game, and a 35% likelihood of playing a full season; for third round players, closer to 40% play one game, and only 28% play a full season)
• Based on their combined likelihood to play two-plus NHL seasons, score 30+ NHL points, and reach 0.4-0.5 or more pts/gm, 1st, 2nd and 3rd round players are the only players with a meaningfully higher likelihood in succeeding in the league.
• However, based on the likelihood to score >100 NHL points, first and second round players are able to separate themselves from the third round as well.
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