TYPES OF SHOTS
INTRODUCTION
Glossary
ONE-TIMERS
ANALYZING THE ONE TIMER
But first, conceptually, why are one-timers so dangerous? Well goaltenders have become so sound positionally in this day and age — with most well over six feet tall and able to cover the majority of the net — that making them move has become a key to goal scoring.
One-timers accomplish that feat to the extreme, as goalies are forced to move laterally without the ability to reset and square up before the puck is shot.
One-timers overall appear to be the superior shot. The overall one-timer versus non one-timer result is statistically significant.
The problem is, the on-net percentage for one-timers is lower than other shots.
Generally, if you get a one-timer on net, there’s a good chance you can catch a goalie out of position or find a seam. But you’re more likely to miss the net entirely.
the ideal shot is a scoring chance one-timer that crosses the Royal Road.
One-timers overall appear to be the superior shot. The overall one-timer versus non one-timer result is statistically significant (11.8% vs 6.2%).
THE MOST DANGEROUS SHOT
one-timers, when on net (42% of the time compared to 50% of the time for all others) are an incredibly dangerous shot, second only to deflections.
RUSH SHOTS
INTRODUCING RUSH SHOTS
I have had a theory for a while that an average shot resulting from a rush up the ice is more difficult than a shot than the average shot that is generated by offensive zone play.
Every team had a significantly higher shooting percentage on “rush” shots than on shots we couldn’t conclusively define as a rush shot
As a whole, the league has a rush shot shooting percentage of 9.56% over the past 7 seasons while the shooting percentage is just 7.34%
28.6% of all goals scored were on the rush.
RUSH SHOTS TRAILING VS LEADING
As expected, teams get a boost in the percentage of overall shots that are rush shots when leading (24.3%) compared to when trailing (2.28%).
This higher percentage of shots being rush shots would factor in to the higher shooting percentages but it actually doesn’t seem to be all that significant.
The more significant impact still seems to be that teams with the lead experience boosts in shooting percentage on both rush and non-rush shots.
The hypothesis that teams have a higher shooting percentage when leading due to the fact that they have more shots on the rush doesn’t seem to be true. It’s just that they shoot better.
POINT SHOTS
POINT SHOTS AND POSSESSION
the percentage of shots that originate from the point might be more of an indicator of possession than of defensive coverage
Point shot percentage did not have a very high correlation with either expected goals (0.08) or total shots (0.17), however, which suggests that it is not a perfect indicator.
STRATEGY AFTER FACEOFFS
(July 29, 2020)
Over half (51.2%) of all shot attempts that followed a won offensive zone face-off came from the point (beyond the top of the face-off circles). What should be a last resort, shooting from distance, is in fact, what happens most often. In no other game state should this be a preferred method of creating offense so why in this instance is shooting from distance so universally accepted?
Maintaining puck possession should take precedence over shooting from above the circles.
teams should put more of a focus on possessing the puck than shooting from distance.
Skating or passing the puck to open space in order to create higher probability scoring chances should yield more positive results.
If there isn’t a skating or passing option at all, a defenseman might be wise to rim the puck around the boards to a far-side winger or D partner.
POINT SHOTS SUCK
(Sept 20, 2020)
The first reason why point shots suck is that they don’t score very often.
· Point shot with traffic score about 3% of the time
· Point shot without traffic score about 1% or less of the time. Basically it’s “playing catch” with the goalie
· Point shots actually create fewer rebounds than anywhere else
· Understanding the opponent actually recovers majority (about 60%) of the rebounds.
· Rebounds are better created from lower in the zone. A shot from the corner shot is preferred over a shot from the point.
· Any time a shot is taken there is less than a 50% chance of getting the puck back.
· Point shots are blocked at a higher rate than anywhere else
· Point shots get saved 97%+ of the time
· Very few goals result from a point shot
Standing at the point and taking a shot is a terrible strategy for creating goals and sustaining offense.
SLAP SHOTS
WHERE DID THE SLAPSHOT GO
(Jan 2021)
In their efforts to optimize their possessions and chances, they are passing up point shots more regularly. If they do shoot from the point, they are focusing on shots that go beyond trying to beat goalies clean – tips, rebounds, and deflections
REBOUNDS
BANGING HOME REBOUNDS
These shots are critically important, as they are almost twice as likely to score as other shots,
HOW DANGEROUS ARE REBOUNDS
(Aug 2009)
Rebounds are significantly more likely to go in for the first two seconds after the original save. The advantage decreases over the next two seconds until, after five seconds, there is essentially no memory of the original shot.
Ultimately, half of the increase in rebound shooting percentage is due to rebounds being shot from closer to the net on average. The other half is due to the unpredictability of the rebound, which results in three seconds of disorganization as the defense tries to smother the second shot.
IMPORTANCE OF NET FRONT PRESENCE
Shots taken with a player in front of the net lead to significantly more loose pucks and rebound attempts.
Having a goal-line player who can provide a consistent screen, like the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Islanders have with Wayne Simmonds and Anders Lee, can be a huge advantage.
DEFENSE RECOVERS FOUR SECONDS AFTER SHOT
(July 2016)
As expected we see a large spike in the following few seconds after the initial shot.
Sh% bottom out at 7 seconds
Lastly we see that as time goes on past 7 seconds, Sh% increases, and I would imagine that Sh% would level out after some amount of time following a save, so this is also interesting.
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