PASSING & SHOT ASSISTS
A PASSING STATS PRIMER
EFFICIENCY AND TRANSITION OFFENSE
Shot generation efficiency of each team was the single-most determining factor in whether or not they won the game.
THE TRANSITION GAME
Linking Play From Defense To Offense:
Looking at the completion percentages over all three zones, teams winning that phase of the game in the neutral zone (NZ) won 57.3% of their games, 6.1% better than in their own end (DZ), and 11% better than in their opponent’s end of the ice (OZ).
By controlling the greater number of shot attempts generated (SAG) from beyond the offensive zone (final pass preceding the shot attempt originated in the defensive or neutral zones, abbreviated as D/NZ) a team has a 56.1% chance of winning that game over their opponents.
The importance of this stat is made more evident when looking at the winning percentage of teams controlling the shot attempts from within the offensive zone: 37.8%. You are better off circling in center ice waiting for a clean entry rather than dumping the puck in.
1) Teams generating more offense in transition win more
2) When the Devils generated a shot attempt from the neutral or defensive zones it had a 17% better chance of becoming a shot on goal as opposed to shot attempts generated from within the offensive zone. Teams are more efficient through the neutral and defensive zones when generating offense
PASSING IN THE OZ
How Does OZ Correlate To Winning:
controlling the greater number of shot attempts in the offensive zone (OZ SAG) has a winning percentage of only 37.8%, nearly 20% lower than when controlling the greater number of transition shot attempts (D/NZ SAG).
Generating a shot attempt in transition has a much greater chance of becoming a shot on goal, so quantity in the offensive zone isn’t as inherent a boon as transition quantity.
Teams generate shots more efficiently in transition than from offense generated within the offensive zone. So, whomever can be more efficient in the neutral zone can greatly influence the outcome of the game.
WHO’S GENERATING ALL THE GOALS
If we can identify the true Corsi machines on each team (those that generate shot attempts) and refine that to measure efficiency (those that generate shots), then it seems logical to eventually be able to identify generating goals as involving some level of skill from the passer.
PASSING REVIEW – CORSI CONTRIBUTION
“Corsi Contribution” (CC%) which broke down how much a player’s Corsi (all shooting attempts) was the result of his shooting and passing.
Corsi Contribution breaks down Corsi into three different components: 1) Individual Corsi For (iCF; a player’s own shot attempts); 2) Shot Attempts Generated (SAG; the final pass preceding a shot attempt); and 3) Secondary Assist Shot Attempts Generated (A2 SAG; the penultimate pass preceding a shot attempt).
The simplest thing CC% does is illustrate whether or not players generate their Corsi totals from predominantly passing, shooting, or a mix of both.
The evidence of a strong, overall possession team as many of their forwards exceeded the averages of their opposition.
HOW FREQUENTLY DO TEAMS GENERATE SHOTS
Teams who control the greater number of shot attempts generated in transition win games more often than those more reliant on offense generated from within the offensive zone.
If OZ SAGE (Shot Attempt Generation Efficiency) correlates strongly with winning games based on last season’s data, then you’d want players who generated shots the quickest.
Teams quicker to be involved in both shot attempts and shots than their opposition (apart from Salvador). This is certainly affected by the team’s strong possession play throughout the season, but it isn’t as reliant on a few players as we might have thought.
DOES ACCURACY MATTER
Teams more accurate than their opponents in the defensive zone won 51.2% of their games. While of slightly less importance than neutral zone accuracy, completing passes in the defensive zone were more important than successful completions in the offensive zone.
Defensemen attempted anywhere from 8.5 – 13.7% of their passes in the neutral zone. As I’ve shown, completing passes in the neutral zone mattered more than the other two, so you’d want an accurate defenseman to be the one attempting passes in the neutral zone.
What’s surprising about the defensemen is how frequently they attempt passes when compared with the opposition. This begins to lend weight to the idea that the Devils a strong puck possession team. After all, passes represent a true sense of possession rather than shot attempts because there are so many of them comparatively. If the Devils pass the puck more often than their opponents, it makes sense they’d generate more offense. Of course, we’ve seen that efficiency matters more than volume.
If we look at the winning correlation chart above we see that teams that control the larger share of passes attempted in the defensive zone win more often than any other zone.
One point that needs to be made is that teams that controlled possession lost more often than not. If score effects influence shot attempt totals, they undoubtedly influence passing totals.
POSSESSION AND TEAM COMPARISON
The Five Stats That Correlate The Closest With Winning:
· Shot Attempt Generation Efficiency (SAGE), both overall and by zone,
· shots for as a percentage of Corsi for (all shooting attempts),
· larger possession share of shots generated via passing (SG),
· Neutral Zone completion percentage (NZ%),
· and larger possession share of shot attempts generated in transition (passes originating in the defensive or neutral zones that precede shot attempts, or D/NZ SAG).
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