A save percentage of .920 is a top-ten performance, while .910 would be nothing more than a good backup. But the difference between the two is just one save every 100 shots. That's an awfully narrow margin, and it takes an awfully large sample size to reliably identify differences that small.
PREDICTABILITY OF GOALTENDERS
(June 2009)
The difference between an NHL All-Star and a fringe goaltender is approximately one goal every other game.
Again, the difference between the All-Star Game and a trip to Springfield is just one goal every other game –as long as teams are forced to use actual performance as an indicator of true talent, they’ll never know whether they’ve got the right guy in goal.
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
I would say that level of risk means you should bet a smaller percentage of your portfolio on goaltending.
It would really be smarter to sign goalies to cheaper, shorter deals, given the performances of the goalies who’ve gotten these big deals.
Spending less on goaltending makes sense in a salary cap world.
IMPORTANCE OF GOALIES FIRST 15 GAMES
if you’re looking at a goalie’s cumulative save percentage, that hot start makes him look above-average even if he’s been awful recently.
It’s an interesting effect – 15 good games get you another 45 games to prove that you’re not good.
Goaltending results occur immediately and visibly. Fair or not, an outlier goaltender can be judged after a quarter of a season,
HOW HARD IS IT TO FIND GOOD GOALTENDING
If a starter-quality goalie can get a full season of work (i.e., 1,250 shots), there’s only a 5% probability that he’ll have a lower Sv% than a replacement goalie, and he’ll have a roughly 80% probability of a better Sv% than a backup.
If a goalie gives you replacement-level play early in his career, it’s unlikely that he’ll have starter-level numbers by the time he’s seen 4,000 career shots.
By 4,000 shots, the majority of goalies will have the track record you’d expect based on their talent. But before that, when most teams are faced with important decisions about their tandem, it’s not hard to end up with a backup-quality goalie in a starting role, and vice versa.
Without a large sample of shots, teams should be careful about overcommitting to a starter, as well as giving up on a prospect too quickly.
WHEN CAN YOU TELL YOUR GOALIE ISNT A STARTER
Calculate the combined SV% of these 42 starting goalies since the 2012-13 lockout. Turns out that this level is about 0.9162.
I’m implicitly saying that I want to know if a goalie shows evidence of being around that talent level or not. If he’s worse than that, then cut bait and try again with another goalie. If he’s better, lock him up at a reasonable price for a long, long time.
· If your goalie drops below a 5% chance of being a 0.9162 goalie at any point after 20 games, you’ve got pretty compelling evidence that he’s not a starting goalie
· If your goalie gets above 95% probability on this test after 15-20 games, you’ve got pretty decent evidence that he’s at least a decent-starting talent, and perhaps better. I’d also be pretty damn interested in anyone above 90% after 40 games or 80% after 60.
· Anyone who doesn’t hit those marks and stays somewhere in the middle? As time goes on, if they’re “somewhere” in the middle they’ll be closer and closer to the 0.9162 SV% mark itself
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