TAKEAWAYS
(Nov 2015)
There were 32,840 takeaways in regular season games over the last two seasons, which means there were 6.7 takeaways per game. If we sum the shot differential value (SF-SA) for each second on the graph above and divide by 6.7 we get the shot differential value for a single takeaway.
When we do that, we get 0.14 shots per takeaway. It’s certainly not much, but it’s something. To get its true value let’s continue converting this value. Since overall shooting percentage was 8.9% over the last two seasons, we get 0.14*.089 = 0.012 Goals per Takeaway (or 1.2 Goals per 100 TkA).
Since an extra goal is worth about a 1/3 of a point in the standings and a win is 2 points, then (2 * 3) / 0.012 = 485.8 TkA per additional win
To put our finding into context, Ryan O’Reilly led the league for the past 3 non-lockout seasons with Takeaway totals of 101 in 2011-12, 83 in 2013-14, and 98 in 2014-15 (I should note that Mark Stone also had 98 for this season).
Additionally,
Teams that lead the league in this category hover around 800 total team takeaways per year. However, this is similar to looking only at Faceoff Wins without considering Faceoff Losses. Teams may get a couple extra wins over the course of the year based on their Takeaway totals, but we still need to consider Giveaways, which I’ll cover next time.
GIVEAWAYS
(Nov 2015)
We learned that it takes around 486 Takeaways per additional win. Teams as a whole rarely top 800
Takeaways in a season, and players who lead the league usually can get around 90 in a season.
Even apart of the unreliability and subjectivity of how Takeaways are recorded,
our research shows that it’s unwise for a team to target a player solely on his Takeaway skills since they won’t make much of an impact.
The less fun cousin of the Takeaway is the Giveaway.
Takeaways for players are cool in that you are the one that forced the turnover. Giveaways are like unforced errors in tennis. You had the time to keep the play going and string together and additional pass, but you had a brain fart and just gave the other team the puck.
Those Giveaways certainly aren’t helping your team, and today we’re going to investigate how much they cost you.
In general, it takes -351.1 Giveaways per additional win.
Teams as a whole who lead the league in Giveaways usually come close to 1000. Players who lead the league often top 100 in a season.
Giveaways matter a little, but these stats when isolated shouldn’t be heavily considered when looking at a player’s contributions toward winning.
Recalling that it takes around 486 Takeaways for an additional win, you may ask why there’s such a disparity in value between the two.
One reason is that most Giveaways occur from D-men. I’d have to do more analysis on where most of them take place on the ice, but if defensemen are giving up the puck, then naturally the opponent is in a better position to get a scoring chance since there are likely less defenders in their path. Another reason is that Giveaways contain more of a surprise element to them. If a player is getting pressured, there’s a higher chance of a Takeaway occurring. When a Giveaway occurs, there’s less notice that it’s coming, giving the team claiming the turnover more to work with before the team now on defense can set up.
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