WHAT HAPPENS AFTER A NZ FACEOFF
NZ Faceoffs rarely lead to anything.
If you compare possessions that start with a NZ faceoff win to all other possible possession types, they consistently lead to the fewest shots and expected goals per possession. Even the territorial advantage compared to faceoff wins in the defensive zone is practically non-existent
So what good are NZ faceoffs then?
The current value of neutral zone faceoff wins lies not in the offense you may be able to generate off of them, but the lack of offense your opponent can muster following your possession.
If you look not just at the current possession but at the following possession as well, NZ faceoff wins actually look pretty good defensively.
Faceoff wins at center ice and at your own blue line are actually among the least damaging defensively on the following possession.
Center ice faceoff wins average 0.16 xG per 100 possessions, faceoff wins at your own blue line are worth 0.00 xG per 100 possessions and faceoff wins at the opponents blue line are worth -0.02 xG per 100 possessions.
Dump-Ins are the main reason for this lack of offense:
· Non-faceoff possessions starting in the defensive zone average about 17 dump-ins per 100 possessions
· Non-faceoff possessions starting in the neutral zone average about 28 dump-ins per 100 possessions
· Possessions following faceoff wins at a team’s defensive blue line average about 35 dump ins per 100 possessions
· Possessions following faceoff wins at center ice average about 50 dump ins per 100 possessions
· Possessions following faceoff wins at a team’s offensive blue line average about 65 dump ins per 100 possessions
Obviously there are reasons for this. A faceoff is a set piece of play that allows the defensive team to quickly find its defensive structure. And a win at the opponent’s blue line is especially susceptible to dump ins since the forwards have no reason to back off with the blue line compressing the opponent’s passing options.
Now, simply because possessions following a NZ FOW at the opp. blue line have the highest frequency of dump ins doesn’t mean that that’s the correct strategy to use.
Possessions with a dump in (per 100 poss): 5.5 Shots, 0.17 xG
Possessions without a dump in (per 100 poss): 32 Shots, 0.68 xG
The most widely used dump&chase technique is. A D-D pass to the weak side defenseman who then exits the zone.
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